China likely to ignore Philippines
Analysts say China will likely ignore the Philippines’ decision to take a long-running territorial feud to an international tribunal, but winning could give Philippines moral high ground.
China Likely to Ignore Philippines’ Challenge in South China Sea
Analysts say China will likely ignore the Philippines’ decision to take a long-running territorial feud to an international tribunal, continuing its insistence on solving maritime disputes without third party involvement.
Philippine foreign secretary Albert del Rosario said Tuesday his government will take the issue to an arbitral tribunal under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which has been ratified by both countries.
The Philippines wants the panel to reject China’s claims to nearly the entire South China Sea. It is also challenging what it says is China’s “illegal” activity around reefs and rocks it says are part of Manila’s exclusive economic zone under the U.N. convention.
Most observers say China will almost certainly not agree to participate in the panel, in keeping with its long-standing policy of solving territorial disputes through direct negotiations.
Carl Thayer of Australia’s University of New South Wales tells VOA the tribunal may be able to move forward without Chinese participation. He says the Philippines hopes a favorable decision would give it a moral victory.
“It’s [a case] that not only has the legal side, but also has a strong moral suasion. If the tribunal ruled even partly in the Philippines’ favor, it would deflate China’s claims and give more legality and international cover to the Philippines.”
Source: Voice of America.